Happy Friday!

Bitcoin spiked to $82,000 but is now falling again. An ugly deja vu compared to what happened in the 2022 bear market, as far as technical analysis is concerned.

Michael Saylor talks about selling Bitcoin, but analysts say that is just a ruse. Watch him build the “flywheel” instead.

Plus, Chris Capre will be live this Sunday to walk through how he’s trading this current environment, including the volatility setups, momentum signals, and institutional positioning he believes matter most right now. He’ll also break down how he approaches markets when headlines are driving rapid moves across oil, SPY, and VIX. Reserve Your Free Spot

TOP STORY

Bitcoin's Rally Peaks At $82,000: Don't Look At This 2022 Pattern If You're Bullish

Bitcoin got rejected at the 200-day moving average at $82,400 — the exact same technical ceiling that ended the bear market bounce in 2022, and CryptoQuant's Head of Research Julio Moreno is calling it the same play.

BTC rallied 37% from February lows to $82,000 before stalling, retreating to $79,000; in 2022, a 43% rally between March and May failed at the identical level.

The internals are flashing the same warnings: unrealized profit margins hit levels comparable to March 2022, realized profit-taking spiked to the equivalent of 14,000 BTC in a single day — the highest since December — and the Coinbase premium flipped negative as U.S. spot demand collapsed at $80,000.

"This rally was mostly driven by speculative activity," Moreno said. "It's not real spot demand. That's more typical in bear markets."

SPECIAL OFFER

Every New Iran Headline Is Moving This Market Fast

One update sends futures sharply lower. The next reverses sentiment again within hours. Chris Capre will be live this Sunday to walk through how he’s trading this current environment, including the volatility setups, momentum signals, and institutional positioning he believes matter most right now. He’ll also break down how he approaches markets when headlines are driving rapid moves across oil, SPY, and VIX.

QUICK N DIRTY

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP started the day strong but are now losing ground as geopolitical fears take over: here’s what else is driving markets today.

Cardano’s whale share has hit a six-year high, but that has not helped prevent a 70% decline from the top. What is going on with ADA?

XRP could start another rally, but only if Bitcoin goes back to $94,000 according to analysts. Here’s what they are watching.

FINTECH FOCUS

Saylor 'Selling' Bitcoin Is A Ruse, Analysts Argue — Better Watch His 'Flywheel' Pumping BTC

Michael Saylor's Bitcoin "flywheel" is gaining believers — and the mechanics are straightforward: Strategy raises capital through STRC preferred shares, buys Bitcoin on a recurring schedule, BTC rises, STRC stays above par, more capital flows in, repeat.

Analyst Scott Melker told the Lark Davis show that traders are already front-running expected Strategy purchases tied to each capital raise — "somebody buying billions of dollars every month on a schedule without relenting ever is definitely something that you can count on in a limited supply asset."

STRC reportedly moved back above par value, potentially unlocking another acceleration.

On Saylor's recent "sell Bitcoin" comments, Melker's read is that it was regulatory positioning for SEC disclosure requirements around STRC — not a thesis change.

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