Happy Wednesday!

The S&P 500 has gone on a tear again and is making fresh all-time highs. Bitcoin is still way off, but is even a small rally too much to ask for these days?

The CLARITY Act will probably not pass this week or even this month. Not a big deal, according to Bitwise — the SEC is ‘ready, willing, and able’ to step in with rules.

Plus, if you’re looking to better understand prediction markets and what Wall Street is pricing in, be sure to sign up for tomorrow’s Cboe and Benzinga webinar. Reserve your free spot now.

TOP STORY

S&P 500 Hits Record Highs — Why Does Bitcoin Not Join The Rally?

The S&P 500 may be at fresh all-time highs near 7,750, but analysts Benjamin Cowen and Trader Mayne warn that midterm-year historical patterns could drag Bitcoin below its $60,000 support.

Cowen's framework: BTC historically bottoms during the second major equity correction of midterm years, as it did in 2018 when it broke $6,000 support only after stocks rolled over.

The September 16 Fed meeting looms as the catalyst—either a hike signals the easing cycle is over, or a hold with sticky inflation pushes Treasury yields and the dollar higher.

Bitcoin could print another lower high before a final decline, with better accumulation opportunities likely in September and October…

SPONSORED CONTENT

Learn How To Convert Probabilities To Prices Through Prediction Market Frameworks In This Cboe Webinar

Ever had a strong opinion on the price direction of the stock market? Prediction markets let you turn that opinion into a real, tradeable price. In this upcoming Cboe and Benzinga webinar, you will learn how to turn probabilities into prices, identify potential edge and better understand what markets are telling you.

Tune in tomorrow at 11 a.m. EDT as we introduce Yes/No and Plus contracts – two ways to express conviction, from all-or-nothing positions to directionally correct views across a range of outcomes. We will also connect these concepts to the broader S&P 500® Index ecosystem. If you’re looking to build a stronger foundation in how markets price expectations, this webinar is for you!

This is a paid ad. Please see 17b disclosure here for more information.

MARKET MINUTES

Bitcoin has lost a trendline against the S&P500 that has held up for 14 years. Here’s which one it is and why this is a big deal.

Bears have apparently left the crypto chat. How else could you interpret Bitcoin not reacting to recent bad news, such as Saylor selling and a $100M hack?

The CLARITY Act could see a last-minute vote if John Thune makes good on his word. But that will probably still not be enough — prediction markets have turned very bearish.

FINTECH FOCUS

SEC Is 'Ready, Willing And Able' To Replace CLARITY Act If It Fails, Bitwise's Matt Hougan Says

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the SEC is "ready, willing, and able" to replace the CLARITY Act with its own rule-making if the bill misses Friday's August 7 deadline.

Hougan wrote that a missed deadline puts the bill in a "walking dead" state with September revival or December omnibus bundling chatter, but warned prolonged uncertainty is worse than a clean failure.

The real backstop is SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who told CNBC the agency can issue rules addressing the same issues as Clarity.

But Hougan's "genie is out of the bottle" thesis rests on BlackRock’s most profitable ETF being a Bitcoin product…

BENZINGA TRIVIA CHALLENGE

Earnings season is in full swing right now which means having a Benzinga PRO or EDGE subscription will help you stay ahead of the market.

This week’s contest continues to heat up with a two-way tie for third place. Will the leaders hold on? They will if they’ve been brushing up on their crypto.

Put your digital asset knowledge to the test with our Crypto Wednesday trivia challenge. It only takes 30 seconds.

Missed yesterday’s quiz? Catch up here. To maximize your chances of winning, take the quiz every day and keep climbing towards the top of the leaderboard.

BEFORE YOU GO

Were you forwarded this email? Click here to subscribe.

And be sure to check out our other newsletters:

Ring The Bell: Created for market enthusiasts by market enthusiasts, this daily newsletter delivers top stories, fast movers and hot trade ideas straight to your inbox. Subscribe here.

Advisor: Tailor-made for Financial Advisors, this weekly newsletter has industry-specific insights, analysis and news. Subscribe here.

Tech Trends: Get the inside scoop on AI, the hottest gadgets and mind-blowing tech trends. Subscribe here.