Happy Friday!

Bitcoin is licking its wounds, but the worst part of the beating may be yet to come: Polymarket traders think $100,000 is more likely than a new all-time high.

Strategy has had a rough week and closed around the pivotal $300 mark on Thursday. Where does technical analysis see the stock going from here?

Plus, if you’re interested in strategies to trade volatility amid government shutdown risks, check out this weekend’s free live training: exclusive invitation for Benzinga readers.

TOP STORY

Bitcoin To Drop To $100,000 Before A New All-Time High? Polymarket Traders Say Yes, But...

Bitcoin hovering under $110,000 has traders debating whether support will hold or if a drop below $100,000 is imminent.

Position trader Bob Loukas noted on X that Bitcoin is approaching its Weekly Cycle Low, five weeks after peaking.

While $118,000 would confirm a new cycle, short-term control remains with the bears.

Loukas highlighted that BTC failed to break its all-time highs in mid-August, signaling the weekly cycle peaked around Week 18.

Despite this, he remains bullish on the late-stage 4-year cycle, citing altcoins holding up as BTC dominance drops — a classic late-cycle pattern.

Why do Polymarket traders, then, see Bitcoin falling to $100,000?

Read the full scoop here.

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QUICK N DIRTY

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, XRP are languishing after a rough week that has seen losses across the board: here’s what’s driving the market today.

XRP is down 10% this week, but traders remain optimistic that it’s not totally over yet: here’s why.

Vanguard is reportedly looking into cryptocurrency ETFs, although the details have yet to be hammered out: here’s why that is a big deal.

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FINTECH FOCUS

Strategy's MSTR Plummets 7% To $300: What Does Technical Analysis Say?

Strategy stock closed at $300.70 after sliding nearly 7% on Thursday, leaving the stock at one of the most critical points in its trading history. 

On the daily timeframe, Strategy has fallen beneath the 20, 50 and 100-day EMAs, turning the 200-day EMA near $335 into overhead resistance. 

The Relative Strength Index is holding near 32, signaling the stock is approaching oversold territory without yet confirming a reversal. 

Market structure highlights the risks: a breakout below $295–$300 could send the stock toward $260, with deeper losses potentially testing $225.

What’s driving the decline?

Read the full scoop here.

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