Happy Thursday!

Bitcoin is at $71,000 and everyone is wondering: is this just a relief rally or a trend reversal?

Kalshi’s CEO denied the influence of the Trump family on positive regulatory developments. Here’s what he had to say about the prediction market boom.

Plus, Matt Maley is actively trading this by building positions ahead of moves and adjusting as they unfold, consistently finding winning trades as volatility expands. This Sunday, he’ll show how to trade this setup. See How He’s Positioning →

TOP STORY

Bitcoin At $71,000: True Recovery Or Bear Market Relief Rally?

Bitcoin is holding near $71,000 — but macro analyst Benjamin Cowen says this is a textbook bear market counter-trend rally, not a recovery.

The key resistance zone is $78,000-$79,000, where the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA are converging and trending lower.

In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin rallied into this exact zone, formed a lower high, and then fell to new lows.

Cowen puts 70-75% odds on Bitcoin revisiting or breaking below its February lows, with a potential cycle bottom forming around October 2026.

The bottom indicators aren't there yet…

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Oil is elevated, rate expectations are shifting, and stocks are reacting immediately to new information. That combination is driving fast, back-and-forth price action across indexes and ETFs. Matt Maley is actively trading this by building positions ahead of moves and adjusting as they unfold, consistently finding winning trades as volatility expands.

This Sunday, he’ll show how to trade this setup while it’s still active.

QUICK N DIRTY

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP are stalling as the Trump truce gets off to an uneven start: here’s what else is driving markets today.

PEPE is getting its first ETF. Can you guess which firm launched it?

XRP fell 4% in March but April will set the tone for the rest of 2026.

FINTECH FOCUS

Kalshi CEO Denies Trump Regulatory Influence As Prediction Market Volume Surges Past $12B

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour is pushing back hard on conflict-of-interest concerns, flatly denying that Donald Trump Jr. — a Kalshi strategic advisor — has ever made a regulatory ask on the platform's behalf.

The denial comes as monthly trading volume surges past $12 billion, with tech layoff contracts growing 20%+ week-over-week and an AI doomsday scenario market doubling from 15% to 30% probability since launch.

But the real story for investors goes deeper…

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